← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 40% | 42% | 2.45 | fair |
| Swansea win | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Stoke −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 61' | ⚽ | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
| 64' | ⚽ | Wouter Burger · Stoke |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jun-Ho Bae · Stoke |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 85' | 🟨 | Andrew Moran · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 45.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1552.96 | 1551.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.10 | -31.55 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.50 |
| league points | 32.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.73 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 26.78 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| travel km | — | 191.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.04 |