← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 59% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 |
| Watford win | 18% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Middlesbrough −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Moussa Sissoko · Watford |
| 47' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
| 65' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 81' | 🟨 | Egil Selvik · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Marcus Forss · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 868.00 | 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1456.97 | 1403.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.48 | -35.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| league points | 44.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.58 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 2.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.76 |