← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Feb 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 42% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Plymouth win | 27% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Millwall +0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.46 |
| Over | 34% | 2.86 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (og) | Joe Bryan · Plymouth |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Ryan Hardie · Plymouth |
| 40' | 🟨 | Adam Randell · Plymouth |
| 53' | ⚽ | Mustapha Bundu · Plymouth |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ryan Hardie · Plymouth |
| 80' | ⚽ | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nikola Katic · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 42.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1415.40 | 1483.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.99 | 11.77 |
| eye test v1 | -1.34 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 11.30 | 11.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -1.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.97 |