← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 70% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.02 |
| Watford win | 10% | 9.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +1.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Watford +1.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 28' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 35' | ⚽ | Manor Solomon · Leeds |
| 62' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 347.00 | 591.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1414.64 | 1623.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.73 | 39.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 1.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 1.65 |
| solidity v1 | -1.02 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 25.65 |
| state index | -0.72 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 249.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 0.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 2.63 |