⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Sunderland 2–2 Watford

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland win65%1.48
Draw21%4.51
Watford win14%7.14

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Watford −1.2554%1.82
Sunderland −1.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Luke O'Nien · Sunderland
31'🟨Mamadou Doumbia · Watford
32'🟨Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland
35'🟨Wilson Isidor · Sunderland
43'⚽ (pen)Tom Dele-Bashiru · Watford
46'⚽Imrân Louza · Watford
64'🟨Enzo Le Fée · Sunderland
80'🟨Chris Mepham · Sunderland
89'⚽Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland
90'🟨Ian Carlo Poveda · Sunderland

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots11
7On target5
7Corners3
12Fouls20
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSunderlandWatford
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.730.64
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium of Light
coach days222.00344.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.08
dominance (last 5)0.600.39
elo1542.171409.60
elo momentum (last 5)21.71-15.40
eye test v10.72-0.61
eye trend v1-0.19-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)70.4050.90
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.57
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.680.68
league points58.0041.00
league rank4.0011.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6079.40
possession avg (last 5)53.6051.80
rest days4.697.00
scorer concentration0.270.20
season ppg1.931.37
shot diff avg (last 5)5.40-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.0010.00
skill v10.67-0.13
solidity v11.21-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.20
squad age24.1728.34
state index0.53-0.73
sterile dominance v10.230.56
threat rate (last 10)0.290.19
threat rate (last 3)0.200.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
travel km—368.80
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.771.70
xg for avg (last 5)1.740.86