β EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Tue, Feb 4, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 62% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 |
| Oxford win | 13% | 7.50 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford β1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Burnley β1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | β½ (og) | MichaΕ Helik Β· Burnley |
| 43' | π¨ | Will Vaulks Β· Oxford |
| 59' | π¨ | Connor Roberts Β· Burnley |
| 64' | π¨ | Hannibal Mejbri Β· Burnley |
| 70' | π¨ | Cameron Brannagan Β· Oxford |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 218.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1591.23 | 1500.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.35 | 11.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.71 |
| league points | 58.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 1.36 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.23 | β |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.95 |