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Middlesbrough 2–3 Sunderland

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Feb 3, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland win36%2.66
Middlesbrough win35%2.76
Draw29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland +051%1.92
Middlesbrough +049%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Delano Burgzorg · Middlesbrough
21'🟨Aidan Morris · Middlesbrough
33'⚽Dan Neil · Sunderland
45'🟨Luke O'Nien · Sunderland
51'⚽Wilson Isidor · Sunderland
59'⚽Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough
64'🟨Jobe Bellingham · Sunderland
78'🟨Delano Burgzorg · Middlesbrough
87'⚽ (og)Ryan Giles · Sunderland
90'🟨Ian Carlo Poveda · Sunderland

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots12
4On target9
1Corners5
11Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMiddlesbroughSunderland
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.650.73
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRiverside Stadium
coach days856.00217.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.942.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.60
elo1477.101532.02
elo momentum (last 5)1.1620.18
eye test v10.180.45
eye trend v10.29-0.47
first sub minute (last 10)62.2065.80
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.580.69
league points44.0055.00
league rank6.004.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)59.6051.00
rest days9.219.21
scorer concentration0.230.26
season ppg1.521.90
shot diff avg (last 5)3.205.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.6014.40
skill v10.650.35
solidity v11.421.27
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.00
squad age28.6224.47
state index0.040.38
sterile dominance v10.83-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.220.29
threat rate (last 3)0.280.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.30
travel km—38.90
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.620.83
xg for avg (last 5)1.101.52