← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| QPR win | 24% | 4.12 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| QPR −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over | 34% | 2.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Aaron Connolly · Millwall |
| 3' | ⚽ | Alfie Lloyd · QPR |
| 25' | ⚽ | Luke Cundle · Millwall |
| 59' | 🟨 | Kieran Morgan · QPR |
| 74' | 🟨 | Alfie Lloyd · QPR |
| 75' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 62.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1600.81 | 1597.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.03 | 23.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| league points | 37.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.90 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 30.93 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.58 |