← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 37% | 2.64 |
| Watford win | 34% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.36 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Watford +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟥 | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 41' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Moussa Sissoko · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 337.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1421.07 | 1429.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.35 | 23.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 41.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 29.02 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 159.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.19 |