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Oxford 1–1 Bristol City

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bristol City win40%2.40
Oxford win30%3.35
Draw30%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford +0.2552%1.88
Bristol City +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Ross McCrorie · Bristol City
19'🟨Greg Leigh · Oxford
30'🟨Cameron Brannagan · Oxford
31'🟥Joe Williams · Bristol City
59'⚽Greg Leigh · Oxford
64'🟨Michał Helik · Oxford
65'⚽Mark Sykes · Bristol City
81'🟨Max Bird · Bristol City
84'🟨Alex Matos · Oxford
86'🟨Ross McCrorie · Bristol City
86'🟥Ross McCrorie

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots7
4On target2
5Corners3
9Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOxfordBristol City
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.460.66
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Kassam Stadium
· Bristol City
90'🟨Max O'Leary · Bristol City
coach days62.00458.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.583.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.490.50
elo1502.741499.14
elo momentum (last 5)13.983.16
eye test v1-0.280.14
eye trend v10.50-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)56.5054.10
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.700.72
league points36.0041.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4071.20
possession avg (last 5)45.2046.80
rest days7.006.90
scorer concentration0.160.24
season ppg1.241.41
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.80
skill v1-0.83-0.29
solidity v10.820.57
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.40
state index0.19-0.09
sterile dominance v1-0.30-0.86
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.931.00
xg for avg (last 5)0.831.76