← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 40% | 2.40 |
| Oxford win | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bristol City +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Bristol City |
| 19' | 🟨 | Greg Leigh · Oxford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 31' | 🟥 | Joe Williams · Bristol City |
| 59' | ⚽ | Greg Leigh · Oxford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Michał Helik · Oxford |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mark Sykes · Bristol City |
| 81' | 🟨 | Max Bird · Bristol City |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alex Matos · Oxford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Bristol City |
| 86' | 🟥 | Ross McCrorie |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max O'Leary · Bristol City |
| coach days | 62.00 | 458.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1502.74 | 1499.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.98 | 3.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.82 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.76 |