← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.04 |
| Millwall win | 29% | 3.44 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.48 |
| Over | 35% | 2.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 53' | 🟨 | Raees Bangura-Williams · Millwall |
| 62' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 758.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1579.54 | 1589.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.68 | -16.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -1.19 |
| solidity v1 | -1.35 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.29 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 0.86 |