← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Jan 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.11 |
| Burnley win | 29% | 3.36 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Leeds +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Manor Solomon · Leeds |
| 60' | 🟨 | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 8 |
| 0 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 210.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1594.70 | 1600.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.88 | 12.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | — |
| league points | 56.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 1.35 |
| solidity v1 | 1.24 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 43.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.69 |