← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.22 |
| Derby win | 24% | 4.09 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Derby −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
| 59' | 🟨 | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 62' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 64' | ⚽ | Anwar El Ghazi · Cardiff |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby |
| 75' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.90 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 146.00 | 877.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1399.57 | 1311.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.40 | -36.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.72 | -0.78 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | -0.09 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 200.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.63 |