← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 47% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Millwall win | 21% | 4.84 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Luton −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 1.37 |
| Over | 30% | 3.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 71' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mads Juel Andersen · Luton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 88' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Walsh · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Japhet Tanganga · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1390.05 | 1453.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.05 | -25.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -1.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.07 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.80 | — |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.63 |