← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 60% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 |
| Plymouth win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +1 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Burnley +1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.74 |
| Over | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 31' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 34' | ⚽ | Josh Laurent · Burnley |
| 45' | ⚽ | Josh Laurent · Burnley |
| 45' | ⚽ | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 87' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 4 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 21.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1413.06 | 1580.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.19 | 15.49 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.90 |
| league points | 21.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 4.31 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.41 |
| state index | -1.21 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.76 |