← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 22, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 39% | 2.48 |
| Stoke win | 31% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.19 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.72 |
| Over | 43% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 9' | ⚽ | Callum Lang · Portsmouth |
| 13' | 🟨 | Marlon Pack · Portsmouth |
| 27' | ⚽ | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 31' | 🟨 | Robert Atkinson · Portsmouth |
| 33' | 🟨 | Tatsuki Seko · Stoke |
| 49' | ⚽ | Connor Ogilvie · Portsmouth |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nathan Lowe · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Viktor Johansson · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wouter Burger |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 752.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1483.47 | 1428.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.67 | 8.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -1.31 |
| solidity v1 | -1.07 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 255.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.93 |