← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 22, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 71% | 65% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.46 | value: +7% |
| Norwich win | 10% | 15% | 9.72 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −1.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Leeds −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Manor Solomon · Leeds |
| 4' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
| 8' | 🟨 | Ao Tanaka · Leeds |
| 13' | 🟨 | Sam Byram · Leeds |
| 65' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 71' | 🟨 | Joe Rothwell · Leeds |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lewis Dobbin · Norwich |
| 85' | 🟨 | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 571.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1795.78 | 1631.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.39 | 13.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.24 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 56.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 3.32 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | 0.84 |
| solidity v1 | 1.28 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 26.30 |
| state index | 1.38 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 230.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.36 |