← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 36% | 23% | 2.68 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 34% | 48% | 2.88 | value: +38% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sheffield United +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.72 |
| Over | 43% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Florian Bianchini · Swansea |
| 20' | 🟨 | Rhys Norrington-Davies · Sheffield United |
| 42' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 47' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Sheffield United |
| 50' | 🟥 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 62' | 🟨 | Sydie Peck · Sheffield United |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ronald · Swansea |
| 68' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Harrison Burrows · Sheffield United |
| 83' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ben Cabango · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 386.00 | 417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1582.97 | 1723.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.28 | -10.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.79 |
| league points | 34.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 25.22 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.94 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 254.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.40 |