← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 40% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.15 |
| Oxford win | 29% | 3.37 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Luton +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.58 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Sam Long · Oxford |
| 10' | 🟨 | Matt Phillips · Oxford |
| 11' | ⚽ | Tom Krauß · Luton |
| 22' | ⚽ | Michał Helik · Oxford |
| 24' | 🟨 | Zack Nelson · Luton |
| 26' | ⚽ | Mark McGuinness · Luton |
| 38' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · Luton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Luton |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
| 69' | ⚽ | Greg Leigh · Oxford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 51.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1497.81 | 1395.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.97 | -33.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.99 |