← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 |
| Derby win | 23% | 4.12 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Derby +0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Eliezer Mayenda · Sunderland |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jobe Bellingham · Sunderland |
| 50' | 🟨 | Marcus Harness · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 873.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1317.02 | 1531.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.42 | 8.82 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.06 |
| state index | -1.02 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 222.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 1.88 |