← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Plymouth win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Plymouth +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Jonathan Varane · QPR |
| 55' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jordan Houghton · Plymouth |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ronnie Edwards · QPR |
| 65' | ⚽ | Rayan Kolli · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 17.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1424.54 | 1432.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.90 | 20.38 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| league points | 21.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 11.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.58 | 1.21 |