← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 44% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.14 |
| Hull win | 25% | 3.86 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Hull −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | ⚽ (og) | Jake Cooper · Hull |
| 81' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 48.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1471.35 | 1378.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.38 | 15.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| league points | 30.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -0.58 |
| solidity v1 | 1.26 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.60 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.23 |