← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 34% | 2.82 |
| Cardiff win | 34% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.08 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Cardiff +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over | 38% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Matt Grimes · Swansea |
| 47' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 51' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 67' | ⚽ | Dimitris Goutas · Cardiff |
| 81' | 🟨 | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Florian Bianchini · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 139.00 | 383.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.02 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1377.44 | 1462.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.92 | -7.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| league points | 24.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.59 | 1.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 26.72 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | 1.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 54.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.38 |