← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Watford win | 29% | 3.41 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cardiff −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.79 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | 🟨 | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 65' | ⚽ | Cian Ashford · Cardiff |
| 73' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 87' | ⚽ | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 135.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1377.81 | 1425.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.38 | -33.68 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 10.20 | 10.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 27.83 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.38 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 194.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.96 |