← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 53% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.63 |
| Derby win | 20% | 4.77 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Derby −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Luke McNally · Bristol City |
| 28' | 🟨 | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ross McCrorie · Bristol City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Haydon Roberts · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 430.00 | 856.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1495.58 | 1334.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.10 | 20.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 34.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -1.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.64 |