← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 4, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 59% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.50 |
| Plymouth win | 20% | 5.15 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −1 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Stoke −1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Lynden Gooch · Stoke |
| 41' | 🟨 | Conor Hazard · Plymouth |
| 59' | 🟨 | Rami Al Hajj · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 2 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1426.83 | 1422.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.76 | -36.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| league points | 26.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.61 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.32 | — |
| state index | -0.63 | -1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.39 |