← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 37% | 2.62 |
| Watford win | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Watford +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Michael Frey · QPR |
| 31' | 🟨 | Michael Frey · QPR |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 38' | 🟨 | Daniel Bachmann · Watford |
| 47' | 🟨 | Morgan Fox · QPR |
| 55' | ⚽ | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 56' | ⚽ | Samuel Field · QPR |
| 70' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · QPR |
| 86' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 89' | 🟨 | Festy Ebosele · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | MATRADE Loftus Road |
| coach days | 458.00 | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1573.34 | 1614.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.24 | -2.73 |
| eye test v1 | -1.36 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.74 |
| league points | 26.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 30.93 | 27.70 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 19.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.03 |