← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 59% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 |
| Derby win | 17% | 5.94 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +0.75 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Derby +0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Marcus Harness · Derby |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Leeds |
| 79' | ⚽ | Brenden Aaronson · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | Pride Park Stadium |
| coach days | 850.00 | 547.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.81 |
| elo | 1347.53 | 1587.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.87 | 34.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 27.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 2.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 14.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | 1.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | 2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.12 |
| state index | -0.20 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 96.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 1.84 |