← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 50% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.54 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 23% | 19% | 4.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Cardiff −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.89 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 38' | ⚽ | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 42' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 55' | 🟨 | Andy Rinomhota · Cardiff |
| 60' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jesper Daland · Cardiff |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 303.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 4.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1630.17 | 1481.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.73 | -24.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| league points | 37.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 27.15 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 194.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.79 |