← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 48% | 48% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Luton win | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Swansea −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 30' | 🟨 | Mark McGuinness · Luton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Joseph Johnson · Luton |
| 38' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Franco · Swansea |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Joseph Johnson · Luton |
| 68' | 🟥 | Joseph Johnson · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Grimes · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Myles Peart-Harris · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 363.00 | 789.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1612.07 | 1586.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.46 | -3.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 27.06 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 242.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.08 |