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Swansea 2–1 Luton

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win48%2.02
Draw28%3.60
Luton win25%3.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Luton −0.552%1.89
Swansea −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Carlton Morris · Luton
30'🟨Mark McGuinness · Luton
31'🟨Joseph Johnson · Luton
38'⚽Gonçalo Franco · Swansea
60'🟨Jordan Clark · Luton
68'🟨Joseph Johnson · Luton
68'🟥Joseph Johnson · Luton
90'🟨Matt Grimes · Swansea
90'⚽Myles Peart-Harris · Swansea

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots4
9On target1
8Corners1
14Fouls17
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaLuton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.740.72
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSwansea.com Stadium
coach days363.00789.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.873.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.540.47
elo1471.851422.10
elo momentum (last 5)2.60-2.69
eye test v10.43-0.31
eye trend v1-0.01-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)63.4057.20
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v1—0.66
league points30.0025.00
league rank11.0018.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4071.00
possession avg (last 5)60.4048.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.330.24
season ppg1.301.09
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.6012.20
skill v11.05-0.70
solidity v10.78-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age25.8528.32
state index-0.05-0.58
sterile dominance v11.31-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.190.24
threat rate (last 3)0.150.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.25
travel km—242.50
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.011.18
xg for avg (last 5)1.491.08