← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Stoke win | 29% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stoke +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 21' | 🟨 | Lynden Gooch · Stoke |
| 27' | 🟨 | Andrew Moran · Stoke |
| 43' | 🟨 | Viktor Johansson · Stoke |
| 51' | 🟨 | Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jobe Bellingham · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 12 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 28.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1409.71 | 1523.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.61 | 21.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 22.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -1.53 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 23.47 |
| state index | -1.33 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 220.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.38 |