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Sheffield United 1–1 West Brom

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Sun, Dec 29, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Attwell

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win47%2.07
Draw29%3.38
West Brom win25%3.93

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom βˆ’0.553%1.84
Sheffield United βˆ’0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Andre Brooks · Sheffield United
40'🟨Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United
45'🟨Tom Davies · Sheffield United
45'⚽Karlan Grant · West Brom
48'🟨Michael Johnston · West Brom
69'🟨Andre Brooks · Sheffield United
86'🟨Callum Styles · West Brom

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots10
2On target6
2Corners2
12Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedWest Brom
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.670.62
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
1.80
coach days394.0028.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.023.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.510.52
elo1526.031492.47
elo momentum (last 5)16.95-0.35
eye test v1-0.47-0.22
eye trend v1-0.190.29
first sub minute (last 10)53.7056.60
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.40
keeper form v10.790.77
league points50.0035.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6084.80
possession avg (last 5)49.8059.40
rest days2.902.79
scorer concentration0.180.36
season ppg2.171.52
shot diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.4013.40
skill v1-0.070.76
solidity v11.060.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age26.1428.13
state index0.27-0.15
sterile dominance v10.320.95
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
travel kmβ€”101.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.761.21
xg for avg (last 5)1.071.16