← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 57% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.05 | fair |
| QPR win | 18% | 20% | 5.34 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| QPR −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Ben Chrisene · Norwich |
| 41' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · QPR |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Ante Crnac · QPR |
| 62' | 🟨 | Harrison Ashby · QPR |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kieran Morgan · QPR |
| 79' | 🟨 | Michael Frey · QPR |
| 89' | ⚽ | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 181.00 | 455.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1626.33 | 1570.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.28 | 28.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 29.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | -1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.53 | 26.26 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.52 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 162.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.81 |