← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 51% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
| Portsmouth win | 23% | 4.24 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Zak Swanson · Portsmouth |
| 30' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marlon Pack · Portsmouth |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nicolas Schmid · Portsmouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Josh Murphy · Portsmouth |
| 64' | 🟨 | Callum Lang · Portsmouth |
| 75' | 🟨 | Zak Swanson · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Owen Moxon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rocco Vata · Watford |
| coach days | 300.00 | 725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1622.83 | 1588.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.08 | 20.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 34.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -1.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.71 | — |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 105.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.37 |