← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 51% | 50% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| QPR win | 22% | 24% | 4.58 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| QPR −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 28' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 33' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Franco · Swansea |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kieran Morgan · QPR |
| 37' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · QPR |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ji-sung Eom · Swansea |
| 64' | 🟨 | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jonathan Varane · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 360.00 | 452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1598.25 | 1583.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.26 | 45.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -0.98 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.07 | 25.67 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 256.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.98 |