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Coventry 4–0 Plymouth

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win73%1.30
Draw16%6.25
Plymouth win11%9.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Plymouth −1.7552%1.86
Coventry −1.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over66%1.45
Under34%2.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry
20'⚽Josh Eccles · Coventry
39'⚽Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry
45'⚽Josh Eccles · Coventry
85'🟨Kornél Szűcs · Plymouth
87'🟥Callum Wright · Plymouth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
19Shots5
9On target1
4Corners4
7Fouls11
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryPlymouth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.750.67
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Coventry Building Society Arena
coach days55.00239.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.291.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.21
dominance (last 5)0.550.42
elo1455.371448.44
elo momentum (last 5)-9.85-61.99
eye test v10.58-0.24
eye trend v10.300.18
first sub minute (last 10)63.5056.00
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.803.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.520.61
league points24.0018.00
league rank17.0024.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win1.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2076.60
possession avg (last 5)58.0043.20
rest days5.105.00
scorer concentration0.280.15
season ppg1.090.86
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.00
skill v11.19-0.37
solidity v10.58-2.25
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
state index-0.35-1.54
sterile dominance v10.68-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.200.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.932.30
xg for avg (last 5)2.281.36