← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Coventry win | 73% | 61% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 6.25 | value: +28% |
| Plymouth win | 11% | 18% | 9.50 | value: +74% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Plymouth −1.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Coventry −1.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.45 |
| Under | 34% | 2.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |