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Sunderland 2–1 Norwich

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland win50%1.95
Draw27%3.61
Norwich win23%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sunderland −0.550%1.95
Norwich −0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Anis Ben Slimane · Norwich
39'🟨Luke O'Nien · Sunderland
42'🟨Wilson Isidor · Sunderland
42'🟨José Córdoba · Norwich
47'⚽Daniel Ballard · Sunderland
49'🟨Chris Mepham · Sunderland
53'🟨Callum Doyle · Norwich
56'🟨Anis Ben Slimane · Norwich
57'🟨Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland
60'🟨Marcelino Núñez · Norwich
68'🟨Daniel Ballard

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots7
4On target4
4Corners2
15Fouls14
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSunderlandNorwich
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.720.66
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium of Light
· Sunderland
70'🟨José Córdoba · Norwich
70'🟥José Córdoba · Norwich
72'⚽Jobe Bellingham · Sunderland
coach days173.00173.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)4.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)8.406.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.472.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.690.46
elo1517.171402.45
elo momentum (last 5)4.7317.63
eye test v10.540.45
eye trend v10.53-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)65.8060.80
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.102.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.740.63
league points40.0026.00
league rank4.0013.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8083.20
possession avg (last 5)52.6064.20
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.200.45
season ppg1.901.24
shot diff avg (last 5)9.80-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)18.6011.40
skill v10.630.99
solidity v11.290.66
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.40
squad age23.0927.37
state index0.33-0.46
sterile dominance v1-0.471.59
threat rate (last 10)0.290.18
threat rate (last 3)0.390.13
threat rate (last 5)0.360.17
travel km—310.40
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.690.85
xg for avg (last 5)1.541.34