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Plymouth 3–3 Middlesbrough

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Middlesbrough win63%1.53
Draw21%4.85
Plymouth win17%5.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Middlesbrough +153%1.82
Plymouth +147%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.51
Under35%2.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'⚽Lewis Gibson · Plymouth
50'⚽Jonathan Howson · Middlesbrough
70'🟨George Edmundson · Middlesbrough
72'⚽Darko Gyabi · Plymouth
77'🟨Nathanael Ogbeta · Plymouth
77'⚽Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough
81'⚽Mustapha Bundu · Plymouth
84'⚽Emmanuel Latte Lath · Middlesbrough
87'🟨Darko Gyabi · Plymouth
90'🟨Ben Gannon-Doak · Middlesbrough

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots17
5On target6
3Corners6
8Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPlymouthMiddlesbrough
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.610.73
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHome Park
coach days234.00812.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.732.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.10
dominance (last 5)0.430.48
elo1449.431474.96
elo momentum (last 5)-64.690.99
eye test v1-0.68-0.24
eye trend v10.10-0.67
first sub minute (last 10)61.3055.70
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.992.12
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.610.78
league points17.0034.00
league rank24.006.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8085.40
possession avg (last 5)43.8051.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.23
season ppg0.851.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.60-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.6011.60
skill v1-0.810.33
solidity v1-2.210.37
sot against avg (last 5)6.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.905.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
squad age—28.62
state index-1.31-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.470.53
threat rate (last 10)0.190.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.18
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60
xg against avg (last 5)2.371.25
xg for avg (last 5)0.730.97