← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 |
| Watford win | 18% | 5.37 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Burnley −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.70 |
| Over | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 49' | 🟨 | Josh Laurent · Burnley |
| 62' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 64' | 🟨 | CJ Egan-Riley · Burnley |
| 80' | ⚽ | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 | James Trafford · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 173.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1559.54 | 1458.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.20 | 18.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.74 |
| league points | 41.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.19 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.58 | 27.57 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 267.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.17 |