← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Fri, Dec 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Derby win | 25% | 3.95 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Derby −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Mads Juel Andersen · Luton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · Derby |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kayden Jackson · Derby |
| 67' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 89' | 🟨 | Curtis Nelson · Derby |
| 89' | ⚽ | Thomas Holmes · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 780.00 | 841.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1423.07 | 1340.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.10 | 13.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -1.68 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.67 | — |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 133.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 0.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.19 |