← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 36% | 50% | 2.72 | value: +35% |
| Norwich win | 34% | 22% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Norwich +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | José Córdoba · Norwich |
| 46' | 🟨 | Callum Doyle · Norwich |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ante Crnac · Norwich |
| 68' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 76' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 87' | 🟨 | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 87' | 🟨 | James Trafford · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 167.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1633.94 | 1745.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.67 | 18.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.88 |
| league points | 26.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 25.53 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.54 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 269.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.41 |