← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 25% | 24% | 4.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stoke −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Andrew Moran · Stoke |
| 23' | 🟨 | Andrew Moran · Stoke |
| 32' | ⚽ | Anwar El Ghazi · Cardiff |
| 43' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ben Gibson · Stoke |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ashley Phillips · Stoke |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Ben Gibson · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ben Gibson · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 13.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 4.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1566.17 | 1494.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.92 | -41.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| league points | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -1.30 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 27.69 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 182.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 0.92 |