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Sheffield United 2–0 Plymouth

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win70%1.36
Draw19%5.28
Plymouth win12%8.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Plymouth −1.553%1.84
Sheffield United −1.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.62
Under40%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United
60'🟨Kornél Szűcs · Plymouth
68'🟨Darko Gyabi · Plymouth
88'⚽ (pen)Kieffer Moore · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots12
3On target4
2Corners3
10Fouls13
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedPlymouth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.760.53
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
2.00
coach days379.00227.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.006.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.961.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.18
dominance (last 5)0.460.36
elo1521.811459.35
elo momentum (last 5)39.40-58.58
eye test v10.00-0.96
eye trend v1-0.220.38
first sub minute (last 10)56.3058.50
form points (last 5)11.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.803.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.15
keeper form v10.770.63
league points44.0017.00
league rank1.0023.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8073.80
possession avg (last 5)49.2040.60
rest days2.803.80
scorer concentration0.200.18
season ppg2.200.89
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-8.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.209.20
skill v10.36-1.20
solidity v10.53-2.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.606.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.60
squad age25.35—
state index0.60-1.39
sterile dominance v10.22-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.202.33
xg for avg (last 5)1.650.54