← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Luton win | 30% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Blackburn −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.81 |
| Over | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Harry Pickering · Blackburn |
| 3' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 32' | ⚽ | Amario Cozier-Duberry · Blackburn |
| 40' | ⚽ | Owen Beck · Blackburn |
| 52' | 🟨 | Makhtar Gueye · Blackburn |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Luton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Joe Rankin-Costello · Blackburn |
| 73' | 🟥 | Liam Walsh · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 317.00 | 774.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1490.95 | 1433.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 61.29 | -7.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| league points | 34.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.81 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 247.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.23 |