← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Tue, Dec 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 49% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
| Stoke win | 23% | 4.23 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Stoke −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Thomas Cannon · Stoke |
| 24' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Luton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tahith Chong · Luton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Wouter Burger · Stoke |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lewis Koumas · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 770.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1424.35 | 1443.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.38 | -25.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -1.67 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.98 | 28.32 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 170.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 2.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.85 |