← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 41% | 31% | 2.39 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 30% | 36% | 3.21 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| West Brom −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Torbjørn Heggem · West Brom |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Sheffield United |
| 35' | ⚽ | Callum O'Hare · Sheffield United |
| 37' | ⚽ | Tyrese Campbell · Sheffield United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 48' | 🟨 | Alfie Gilchrist · Sheffield United |
| 62' | ⚽ | Tom Fellows · West Brom |
| 66' | 🟨 | Michael Johnston · West Brom |
| 81' | 🟨 | Torbjørn Heggem · West Brom |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sydie Peck · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 7.00 | 373.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1687.86 | 1710.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.91 | 29.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| league points | 28.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.53 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.44 | 24.58 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 101.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.77 |