← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 45% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Portsmouth win | 26% | 31% | 3.74 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Portsmouth +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · Bristol City |
| 12' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
| 20' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Portsmouth |
| 41' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · Portsmouth |
| 62' | ⚽ | Josh Murphy · Portsmouth |
| 71' | ⚽ | Callum Lang · Portsmouth |
| 83' | 🟨 | Callum Lang · Portsmouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Paddy Lane · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sinclair Armstrong · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 706.00 | 402.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.23 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1570.39 | 1629.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.56 | 2.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 42.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 26.24 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.40 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 0.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.37 |