← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 41% | 2.40 |
| Swansea win | 31% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Luton −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 64' | ⚽ | Matt Grimes · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 767.00 | 341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1424.79 | 1469.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.39 | -2.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| league points | 18.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.15 | 25.84 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 242.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.43 |