← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 56% | 56% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 20% | 20% | 4.89 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cardiff −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Yakou Méïté · Cardiff |
| 7' | ⚽ | Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry |
| 11' | 🟨 | Callum O'Dowda · Cardiff |
| 39' | 🟨 | David Turnbull · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry |
| 48' | ⚽ | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 58' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jak Alnwick · Cardiff |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Victor Torp · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days | 29.00 | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 4.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1606.37 | 1506.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.36 | -24.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.15 | 27.39 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 159.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.90 |