← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 53% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
| QPR win | 21% | 4.81 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Watford −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Nicolas Madsen · QPR |
| 34' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Watford |
| 54' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 57' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 88' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 274.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1621.44 | 1538.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.09 | 0.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 30.93 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 19.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.07 |